Since ChatGPT launched, job openings are down ~30% while the stock market is up ~70% — and one economist argues the culprit isn’t just AI, but monetary policy

 

Since the introduction of ChatGPT and related generative-AI tools, the U.S. labour market has displayed a striking divergence: while job openings have fallen significantly, equity markets have continued to climb. Charts circulated recently show job vacancies down by roughly 30 % from their peak, while the S&P 500 and other major indices are up around 70 % since the same reference point.

At first glance, this might appear to be a simple story of “AI is replacing jobs, and investors are betting on the winners.” But according to some economists, that narrative is too simplistic. Instead, they point toward the bigger role played by monetary policy, global trade shifts and structural labour-market frictions.

Here’s a deeper dive into what’s going on, why it matters — and how this relates to your interests in finance, career trends and content creation.

What the numbers show

  • According to multiple media reports, since the official launch of ChatGPT (and the surge in AI-tool interest that followed), U.S. job-openings data show a drop of roughly 30 %.
  • Over the same interval, major stock-market indices have climbed about 70 % — driven by strong earnings, low yields and investor appetite for future growth.
  • The contrast — fewer open jobs + higher valuations — has drawn the label “the scariest chart in the world” in some financial-media pieces.

Why AI alone doesn’t explain it

The simple “AI is killing jobs while stocks rally” story has appeal, but it fails to capture many macro-underpinnings. Economists emphasise several additional drivers:

  1. High interest rates / tight monetary policy
    The Federal Reserve’s prolonged high-rate stance has elevated the cost of capital, dampened business investment, and made firms more cautious about hiring. This tends to reduce job openings even if unemployment remains low.
  2. Productivity & structural shifts
    While AI is partly responsible for productivity gains and labour-substitution, the broader phenomenon includes automation, offshoring, business-model change and shifting demand. These structural forces reduce the number of new jobs being created or posted.
  3. Asset-price versus real-economy divergence
    The stock-market rally reflects expectations of future earnings growth, low real yields and global capital flows — not necessarily a simultaneous breakout in hiring. In fact, the market may be anticipating fewer workers delivering more output (via technology).
  4. Global trade, immigration & labour-supply dynamics
    Some labour-market slack is influenced by immigration policy, demographic change, labour-force participation shifts and supply-chain realignment. These factors reduce the “job openings to unemployed” ratio without strictly being about AI.

Why the market is still up

  • Investors are often forward-looking: they price in expected profits, discount rates and structural improvements in productivity. If AI and automation promise higher output for fewer workers, the profit margin outlook rises — favourable for equities.
  • Low interest rates or expectations of future rate cuts raise the present value of future earnings — boosting valuations.
  • A slowing labour-market may reduce inflationary pressure (wage growth decelerates), which in turn makes fixed-income yields lower, again boosting equity valuations.

In other words: fewer job openings can create the perception that inflation is cooling — which is good for valuations — even if from a broader economic-growth perspective it is more ambiguous.

Implications for your interests (finance, career, content)

  • For your goal of becoming a mutual-fund advisor or finance-professional: this is a live case of how macro-policy (interest rates, monetary stance) intersects with labour-markets and asset-prices. Understanding the nuance will set you apart from those who default to “AI did it.”
  • For content creation: you might consider a short video or reel titled “Why job openings fell but stocks soared” — tag-line: “Not just AI — the Fed matters too.” Your audience (students, young professionals) intrigued by jobs + tech + markets could engage.
  • For career-planning: if hiring is broadly cooling and firms are shifting to capital-intensive or tech-enabled models, skills that augment human capital (analytics, tech fluency, strategic thinking) will become more prized than purely head-count-driven roles.
  • For investment insight: when asset valuations diverge strongly from labour-market strength, one must assess sustainability — is the market pricing growth, or simply the next phase of “doing more with less”? That distinction matters for long-term advisories.

Risks & caveats

  • The job‐openings data is volatile and subject to revisions; using it as a standalone signal can mislead.
  • A falling number of vacancies doesn’t necessarily equal mass layoffs or high unemployment yet — hiring may simply be slowing.
  • The uplift in equity markets might be fragile: if productivity gains don’t materialise, or consumer demand weakens, there could be a correction.
  • Monetary policy isn’t a panacea: even if the Fed loosens, structural labour-market problems (demographics, skills mismatches) may persist.

Final thoughts

The juxtaposition of plunging job openings and soaring stock markets since ChatGPT’s launch is compelling — but attributing everything to AI oversimplifies. Monetary policy, productivity shifts, globalisation, demographic change and business-model evolution all play major roles.
For someone like you—interested in finance, content and career progression—this story offers rich material: it illustrates how markets, policy and technology intertwine, and how narrative shapes market behaviour as much as fundamentals.

Shweta Sharma