As the fifth anniversary of Brexit approaches, emotions surrounding the event remain raw. For Andrew Moss, managing director of the award-winning Cambridgeshire packaging firm Horizon, the memories of January 31, 2020, are a painful reminder of chaos and broken promises. “The combination of Brexit and the pandemic left us in survival mode,” he recalls. “We wanted answers, but none came. Westminster had no plan. In the end, we had to figure it out ourselves.”
The UK’s departure from the EU, marked in Brussels by the lowering of the Union Jack, was a somber moment for many. EU official Georg Riekeles, who had spent years working on the withdrawal agreement, described it as a “regretful achievement,” likening the loss of the UK to a star slipping from the EU flag and leaving behind a golden tear. For Moss and other business leaders, however, regret quickly turned into anger. Government assurances of “frictionless trade” proved hollow, and businesses were left to grapple with new barriers alone.
In 2021, Moss was forced to establish a costly depot in the Netherlands to navigate VAT complications. Even now, the aftershocks of Brexit continue to impact his business. Tax reliefs have dried up, development opportunities are moving abroad, and small businesses like his feel the weight of unfulfilled promises. “Yes, we’ve survived, but you don’t see the dead bodies of companies that didn’t,” Moss laments.
The data five years on is grim. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, Brexit will likely leave the UK economy 4% smaller in the long run than if the country had stayed in the EU. Goods exports have fallen by 9%, while other advanced economies have seen an average rise of 1%. Imports have followed a similar pattern, dropping by 9%, compared to a 3% rise in other countries. Services have fared slightly better, but key sectors like finance and transport still lag behind their counterparts in other advanced economies.
Under Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, there is cautious optimism about resetting relations with the EU. Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently acknowledged the economic harm caused by Brexit and expressed a desire to negotiate a better trading relationship. Starmer is set to attend an EU Council retreat in Brussels on February 3, 2025, the first such meeting between a UK prime minister and EU leaders since Brexit. Later this year, a formal UK-EU summit is expected, signaling a potential thaw in relations.
Despite these steps, significant challenges remain. Political pressures from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party have made the government wary of alienating Brexit supporters. Meanwhile, disagreements with the EU persist, including disputes over citizen rights and fishing regulations. EU officials have expressed frustration at the UK’s lack of clarity regarding its goals for future economic ties. However, there is goodwill in Brussels, with many European leaders welcoming Starmer’s constructive tone and hinting at the potential for stronger cooperation.
Figures like Poland’s Donald Tusk have even expressed hope for a future “Breturn.” While this remains a distant possibility, the sentiment reflects a desire in some quarters for renewed ties. As former EU ambassador João Vale de Almeida noted, the return of Donald Trump to the White House and growing geopolitical tensions could push the UK and EU toward deeper cooperation in security, defense, and international relations.
For business leaders like Moss, the damage is already done. “We’ve succeeded, but at a huge cost,” he says. “And there are so many others who didn’t make it.” As the UK marks five years since leaving the EU, Brexit’s legacy remains a complex mix of hope, frustration, and lingering questions about the future. Whether the anniversary marks the start of a reset or a continuation of division will depend on the decisions made in the years ahead.
